Is War A Dying Business – Archive Article
December 13, 2008
RADIO 2GB NEWS COMMENTARY BROADCAST ON FRIDAY JANUARY 8 1999 ON RADIO 2GB’S “BRIAN WILSHIRE PROGRAMME” AT 9 PM, AND ON JANUARY 10 1999 ON “SUNDAY NIGHT LIVE” AT 10.30 PM.
The only thing more common than the predictions about the end of war, has been the widespread use of war as an instrument of national politics. Therefore: is war a dying business?
The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research was established in 1980 to undertake independent research on disarmament and related problems. It is one of the world’s major disarmament research bodies.
The current edition of the Institute’s journal is a review of the world’s disarmament work during the past 10 years. In keeping with the Institute’s mandate, there is a variety of viewpoints.
First, the good news is that we have avoided World War III. The bad news is that there are more weapons on the way. There may not be a general war but there will be many localized conflicts.
Second, there has been a revolution in military affairs. For example, a greater population or a larger standing army were traditionally seen as a security asset against a less populated adversary. Now what matters is technological sophistication, and not the sheer weight of numbers. In fact, the greater the population density, the higher number of likely casualties. For defence purposes, therefore, it pays to have a small, well educated population.
Third, the US has led the way in developing remotely- fired weapons. These weapons, which we saw in action recently in Iraq, do not have a pilot. They reduce the risk of casualties among the attacker. On the other hand, at the receiving end, there can be an increased risk of casualties because we have yet to see if remotely-fired weapons will be as accurate as piloted ones. In other words, civilians may be at greater risk from weapons going astray.
Fourth, the treaty banning chemical warfare has been well received. 113 countries have accepted it. No other multilateral arms control treaty has achieved such a wide degree of participation so early. Of course, this means that about another 70 countries have yet to accept it and so the world is far from seeing the end of chemical warfare.
Fifth, while on chemical weapons, the journal also contains a warning about non-governmental groups using these weapons. In other words even if all the world’s 190 governments agree to ban them, there is still the risk of groups operating outside governments using them. The journal mentions the 1995 nerve gas attack on the Tokyo railway system by the Aum Shinrikyo religious group. 12 people were killed and another 500 were injured.
Finally, the decade has also seen the rise and fall of UN peacekeeping operations. The ending of the Cold War a decade ago created a window of opportunity for UN peacekeeping operations. But the decade ended with a reduction in such operations. One reason was that the nature of warfare changed, with there being fewer international disputes and more internal conflicts. Governments have been unwilling to supply forces for UN operations in such dangerous conflicts.
In short, the Cold War has ended but peace has not broken out.
Keith Suter.
Consultant for Social Policy