Archive Article: Local Nuclear War 24 April 98.
December 23, 2008

There is now virtually no risk of a deliberate World War III between the Americans and Russians. But there is a risk of local nuclear wars. There is currently concern about India and Pakistan: they have fought three wars in the last 51 years: are they about to have another?.

Dr David Dickens is Deputy Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Wellington, New Zealand and he has written a booklet called More Than Bombs and Border Tension: India and Regional Security. Dr Dickens does not share the pessimistic views of India. On the contrary, instead of viewing India mainly in terms of its border clashes with Pakistan and the dispute over India’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, attention ought to be given to India’s contribution to the building of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

India is in a complicated strategic position. While Pakistan is seen as its major opponent, China is also an opponent. India had a war with China in 1962 and it was India’s defeat that encouraged India to re-organize its conventional forces and to embark upon the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

China had embarked upon a nuclear programme ahead of India and exploded its first device in 1964. India is a long way behind China. Additionally, while China’s armed forces are largely antiquated by western standards, they are formidable from an Indian perspective.

But India has even more formidable domestic problems. First, there is problem of national unity. India does have a greater capacity for toleration than is commonly recognized by other countries. There may be some religious-inspired violence but generally Indians live well together.

Religion is therefore not such a large a problem. But there is a threat to national unity arising out of the different minorities thinking that they could do better on their own. In other words, India’s defence forces may be more necessary within the country rather than standing guard on the borders.

Second, India’s threat to international security is possibly caused more by pollution than by nuclear proliferation. India has large, inefficient industries, with poor environmental regulations. For example, India is the sixth largest and second fastest-growing contributor to greenhouse gases.

India ought to be embarked upon a programme of sustainable economic development. But it is difficult to reform its large government-run corporations.

India has great potential. It already has the second largest middle class in the world (after the United States) and it has the second largest trained scientific work force in the English-speaking (again after the United States). It could become an economic super power next century.

But India has to create confidence-building mechanisms with both Pakistan and China. It needs to reassure them – and they need to reassure India – that they are not threats to each other. Indeed all three have greater problems at home than from overseas. All three would benefit economically from an outbreak of peace.

BROADCAST ON FRIDAY APRIL 24 1998 ON RADIO 2GB’S “BRIAN WILSHIRE PROGRAMME” AT 9 PM, AND ON APRIL 26 1998 ON “SUNDAY NIGHT LIVE” AT 10.30 PM

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