Archive Article: Iran Has Been Back In The News. 25 Sep 98
December 23, 2008

Iran has been back in the news this week, with some indications that there may be an improvement in its relations with western countries. But there are also other indications that the conservative Islamic clerics, who have such a major say in how the country is governed, may be resisting such changes.

Dr Gary Sick has been in Australia and I attended a briefing he gave this week at the US Information Service. Dr Sick is the Executive Director of the Gulf 2000 project at Columbia University. He served on the National Security Council in the Ford, Carter and Reagan Administrations and he was heavily involved in the release of the US hostages from Iran in 1981-2.

Dr Sick offered a viewpoint on Iran which is different from that usually given in the mass media. Most people, when they think of Iran, recall images of wild, angry crowds of men with their fists in the air complaining about the US. There is some truth in that imagery but there is much more which does not get reported. For example, there are more women in the Iranian parliament than there are in the US Senate.

Among the major points made by Dr Sick are, first, that Iran now has some major financial problems. Iran was a major beneficiary of the 1973 oil price increase. The price of oil had declined somewhat in the 1960s. During the 1973 Middle East war, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries dramatically increased the price of oil.

But now there is an oil glut. Revenues have dropped by 30 per cent for the oil producing countries in one year. The revenue is now back to the pre-1973 level. This is a dramatic change, especially since in the last 25 years, the people in the oil producing countries have become accustomed to expensive lifestyles and an extensive welfare state. These are now all under threat.

Second the 1979 Revolution, which saw the Shah removed and Ayatollah Khomeini come to power, is now undergoing some changes. All revolutions revolve. Iran is not a strict dictatorship like Iraq and there have been changes of personnel in Iranian leadership. Iran has competing political groups, hence the conflicting signals we have had this week coming from Iran.

Finally, there are tensions within the Islamic world, partly over Afghanistan. Afghanistan has no linguistic or ethnic unity. Its history had been one of the different ethnic groups fighting each other – when they have not been fighting against potential invaders, such as the British, Russians and Persians (now Iranians).

The Taliban are now taking over in Afghanistan. These are Sunni Muslims. Iranian Muslims are Shia Muslims, who have a different approach to Islam from the Sunnis. Pakistan (which is largely Sunni) has helped the Taliban come to power, while Iran has helped the Shia groups put up a rearguard action.

The Taliban are insisting that women stay at home and not have careers. Iran thinks that the Taliban give Islam a bad image and is worried that a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan will cause further problems.

In short, Islamic politics is a lot more complicated than is presented on television.

BROADCAST ON FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 25 1998 ON RADIO 2GB’S “BRIAN WILSHIRE PROGRAMME” AT 9 PM, AND ON SEPTEMBER 27 1998 ON “SUNDAY NIGHT LIVE” AT 10.30 PM